Current Date and Time:Friday, July 30th, 2010
Here are my affirmations:
I am a conservative regarding fiscal and national defense matters.
I am a libertarian on social matters.
I hate flaming liberals just as much as nannyist republicans.
Sorting Out Cross-Strait Relations
(The strait I'm referring to is the Taiwan Strait.) Much hubbub and ballyhoo has been made about the recent "arms sale" to Taiwan. If you consider transport helicopters and stationary defensive anti-aircraft/missile batteries a threat to China, then may I suggest a dose of reality and/or a rudimentary lesson in 21st century force-on-force maneuver warfare? Honestly, does any sane person think that Blackhawk helicopters flying at 140 miles per hour would stand a chance against Chinese Sukhoi SU-30 fighter jets attacking at twice the speed of sound, with beyond visual range killing capabilities? And as far as the Patriot missile systems are concerned, that's like the Taiwanese defending against Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles with a 12 gauge shotgun. The so-called "arms sale" was nothing more than routine equipment updates that were agreed upon as part of a general treaty penned years ago.
The so-called China/Taiwan experts and talking heads on television in the West are all repeating the same – recycled non-sense when it comes to Cross-Strait relations. (Just because you had Kung Pao chicken for lunch does not make you an expert on Cross-Strait relations.) The pundits who think war is inevitable must complete the following sentence with some semblance of logic: China attacks Taiwan and achieve what? As far as I'm concerned, China has already out-maneuvered and outflanked Taiwan, without firing a single shot, in fact the Chinese outflanked the Taiwanese BECAUSE they did not fired a single shot.
When I was growing up in the United States during the 1970's and early 1980's, it seems all the "cheap" everyday items were made in either Taiwan (ROC) or Japan. I remembered watching an episode of Three's Company where Jack Tripper had a punch line about pots and pans being made in Taiwan. Fast forward 30 years later; these days, your everyday "cheap" items are made in China, along with other not-so- cheap items, like the Lenovo laptop that I'm typing this on. A funny thing happened on the way to the 21st century (sorry I couldn't resist). China emerged from its own version of the dark ages and is now the second biggest economy in the world, although they still correctly refer to themselves as a developing nation (it's really scary to think what China will be like as a mature economy). The one perceived trump card that Taiwan plays is: "We're a democracy". China counters by pointing to its very successful one country, two systems policy, a la Hong Kong and Macau. As a point of reference, since Hong Kong and Macau ceased being colonies of European countries, their economies have grown even faster than the Chinese mainland. So Taiwan no longer has a monopoly on democracy in the Mandarin speaking world. In fact, if we are honest about the subject: more people votes for politicians at the township, county, and provincial level in China than in Taiwan, a statistic that frequently, shall we say… "escape" most western journalists. Today there are daily flights and ferries across the Taiwan Strait. The two countries share a quietly productive economic relationship; 30 years ago, this was unfathomable. 30 years ago, the tiny country of Taiwan out-produced their giant sleeping cousin. I respectfully submit to you readers that China has out-Taiwan Taiwan.
Still not convinced that war between China and Taiwan is a zero sum gain for the China? Fine, I'll indulge the pundits. Suppose the Chinese leadership decides to abandon the greatest economic turnaround in the history of the modern world and attacks Taiwan (because nothing says unification quite like war). Even if the Taiwanese military are better trained than the Chinese (I have no doubt that the Taiwanese are better trained to the man), just the sheer number of Chinese alone will overwhelm the Taiwanese. China will win the war within a week, and will just as quickly lose the peace. Such is modern warfare, wherein the goal is how to win the peace after the initial onslaught. A more likely scenario is: After the initial force on force contact, the Taiwanese will withdraw into the rugged, mountainous countryside and conduct a murderous guerilla campaign. The Chinese will be drawn into a counterinsurgency struggle (something we Americans know all too well, i.e. Viet Nam; Iraq; Afghanistan). If the Chinese thinks the Tibetans are a nuisance, wait until they deal with the pissed off Taiwanese civilian populace that just got invaded. Ever see the Taiwanese parliament "debate"? They debate with their fists. It will be a painful and costly (mis)adventure for the Chinese and all parties involved. An internal regime change will take place in Beijing faster than you can say: Kung Pao chicken.
And what will the United States, Taiwan's best ally in the region, do to help? Well, three things: First, we'll make a beeline straight to the United Nations and lodge a formal protest. Then we'll supply Taiwanese insurgents with arms through the Philippines, and then we'll covertly bribe the Muslims in Western China to open up a second guerilla front in the China far west. That will be the extent of it. No American President will risk 300 million American lives for 20 million Taiwanese lives. This isn't 1995, when the US Navy held off the entire Chinese military with two aircraft carrier battle groups. It's no secret these days that the Chinese Navy, at any given time, has two submarines on patrol along the US coast with nuclear ballistic missile capabilities, and we have 10 times that many subs patrolling the Western Pacific. Our missiles already have the coordinates for Beijing and Shanghai pre-programmed into its guidance systems. Yes, a funny thing happened on the way to the 21st century, somehow détente made an unintended comeback. The question for the Chinese is: Do we want to end 5000 years of civilization for an insignificant island that doesn't even have oil? And the question for the United States is: Do we want to bring about nuclear holocaust by intervening in what is essentially a civil conflict? All rhetorical questions of course, because the notion of China invading Taiwan is about as ridiculous as the United States invading Mexico, what's the gain for the US except more proverbial hungry mouths to feed. And the asinine thesis that China will use nuclear weapons against Taiwan (because nothing says reunification quite like a mushroom cloud) makes about as much sense as the US nuking Puerto Rico, if the Puerto Ricans decides that they no longer want to be a part of the United States.
Finally, if Hu Jintao is reading this essay (I have no reason to believe that he doesn't), I have something for you to consider: England was once a part of France; America was once a part of Great Britain; Australia was once a part of Great Britain; let's just say that these nations aren't exactly dying to reunite are they? Why don't you give it another 50 years, by then, the Taiwanese will be petitioning their government to reunite with China. Your country will not have to fire a single shot.
~Huy NguyenThe duality of Man and God, in three paragraphs.
Man created God in his own image and for his own purposes. Let's examine the "for his own purposes" part in this first paragraph. At the dawn of civilization, man created the concept of god and religion as a de facto operating manual for morality, civility, and as an explanation of natural events (ie: changes in seasons; floods; earthquakes; etc). Why? Well, for one thing, it was necessary for a harmonious society to exists; similar to the necessity for shelter, food, warmth, et al. And since man is inherently hmm … how could I put it delicately… full of shit, he had to create the concept of an all-knowing, all-powerful super natural being to supplant man's own moral frailty in order for the masses to follow and obey. Over the span of millenniums, the basic tenet of morality evolved into other, more sinister concepts. Here are but a few: God for war; God for peace; God for suicide bombings; God for genocide; God for Whites; God for Blacks; God for Browns; God for socialism; God for capitalism; God for fascism (70 percent of the Waffen SS were practicing Catholics); God for heterosexuals; God for homosexuals; God for circumcision; God for 72 virgins; God for Vegetarians; God for eating pork; God for eating beef; God for pot-smoking slackers (who can forget their classic slogan "bong hits for Jesus"); ad infinitum. Six hundred years ago, technology and science was an affront to God, today science and technology is used to spread the word, collect donations, recruit worshipers, and direct terrorist attacks all in the name of God. Man created and uses God for "his own purposes".
Now for the "in his own image" part of my opening sentence. I was born and baptized into the Catholic faith, and have had the good fortune to travel the world. In my travels, I make it a point to visit Catholic, Orthodox, and other religious establishments. I enjoyed looking at the artwork in these establishments and here are my observations of the artistic rendering of Jesus in these places: In Jordan, Jesus is rendered with southern Mediterranean features and skin tones; in Eastern Europe, Jesus is rendered with Slavic features; in Western Germany, Jesus is rendered with blonde hair and light blue eyes; in England, Jesus is rendered as a member of the 1970's rock band Led Zeppelin; In Turkey, Jesus is rendered as the guy who sold me the 1993 Toyota that I currently drive; in the Southern United States, Jesus is rendered as a country music star. I've also observed the different rendering of the Buddha (formerly Prince Siddhartha): In India (his native land), he is obviously rendered as an Indian; in China, Singapore, Taiwan, Tibet, and South Korea, he is rendered with physical features like that of the local peoples. The Gods of ancient Greece, even though they were all-knowing and all-powerful, still had petty human fallacies. In the Middle East, their God forbids them to render his image, but they work around this by putting an image of an AK-47 and a nuclear mushroom cloud on their religious banners which also serves as their battle banner. "Man created God in his own image".
So after reading the first two paragraphs, the reader might be tempted to think that I'm an atheist. Au contraire, I still consider myself a Catholic and I like to think that there is a God (although I wouldn't blame the guy for giving up on us), in the same sense that I believe my beloved Yankees will win the World Series every year. Without conceit, I understand the difference between the concept of god and playing God. I'm still a believer because along with witnessing all the evil in the name of God, I've also witnessed kindness in the name of God, without proselytization. Religion is similar to communism; the concept looks good on paper but in practice, often times, it is reduced to human frailty. Such is the duality of Man and God.
~Huy Nguyen
787 billion dollars of stimulus (supposedly to stimulate jobs creation in the private sector)? YES WE CAN! An undeserved Nobel prize? YES WE CAN! 10 percent unemployment? YES WE CAN!
If you're one of the 10 percent that's unemployed, well boo hoo for you. Don't bother the messiah, he's busy with more important things, like creating a new green economy for the worshipers of the Gora-Dama. What's that you say? No jobs? No gasoline? No food for your children? Oh you silly people, why must you bother the messiah with such trivial matters. Can't you see that he's out there saving the universe for you. Put aside your basic human needs for a few generations. Consider yourselves blessed to be graced by his presence; for you to drink his cool-aid is to be touched by (self-proclaimed) divinity.
And stop complaining about your soon to be worthless retirement fund, you must rejoice in the sanctified (sanctimonious) green economy. The messiah will make all your problems disappear (along with the rest humanity). YES HE CAN!
~Huy Nguyen
In previous musings , I outlined what I believe to be signs of recovery based upon the equity market indices. Yes, the DOW is close to 9500; yes the S&P is close to 1000, however part of my thesis is that the NASDAQ must reach 2200 in order for the biggest economy in the world to right itself. My theory is that during hard times, companies must produce a lot with a little. This means leveraging technologies to make up for less employees. (Employees are of course the most costly part of any business. Don't believe me? Take a look at the Detroit automakers.) And leveraging technologies mean more orders for technological equipments, which mean the tech heavy NASDAQ will surpass the other indices. However, this hasn't been the case...yet.
Another concern of mine is the price of gold and the price of oil: Both rather high in my opinion.
Oil is trading at a price that is proportionally all out of whack with the DOW. It doesn't seem like it because we've gotten used to expensive gas before the height of the recession. Oil is trading as if the DOW is at around 10500. I think this is because in a small corner of their subconscious minds, investors realize that in the coming years, the Pajama administration will be especially tyrannical towards the energy sector. Crude, coal, and carbons are out, while boutique energy sources will be politically favored. Unfortunately, boutique energy sources will only provide about 1 percent of the energy needed. This 1 percent of course will go to carbon credit buyers like his holiness the Gore-A-Dama, leaving the rest of us in the dark (ages).
The high price of gold is another counter recovery indicator. Despite a 40 percent rise in the indices since the bottom, the price of gold hasn't retreated in proportion to the rise of the indices. A sign of economic uneasiness going forward. By the way, if you think gold will save you in the event of global economic collapse, YOU ARE DELLUSIONAL!!! I mean think about it. Really think about it. The only people that think gold is a great investment are the people that are trying to sell gold to the people that are stupid enough to buy it. This is the mantra for panic gold buyers: Buy high, sell low or not at all.
As an aside, there was in fact an occurence of national economic collapse in our hemisphere in this decade. Fortunately for us, it occured in a country that is economically insignificant in the global scope, therefore the crisis was isolated. Unfortunately for the Argentine, it happened to them.
Betting on Sheldon Adelson.
In terms of return on investment, Sheldon Adelson's Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has been my top performer since the market bottomed in March. I bought LVS on March 27th of this year at $2.99, as of this writing, LVS is trading at around $14. (Before you go thinking I'm some sort of millionaire, think again. I was only able to invest around 300 bucks.) I knew that LVS would eventually come back from its ridiculous panic sell-off low, but the fact that it came roaring back in a hurry (over 300 percent in my case) really caught me by surprise. But when you're invested in a man like Adelson, you'd better hang on for a wild ride.
I'd read about Sheldon Adelson in a financial periodical during the late 1990's and started following his LVS in 2004 when it went public. In my mind, Adelson is Trump, but with twice the success and a quarter of the publicity. Like Trump, Adelson is a massive gambler. But unlike Trump, Adelson's gambles have paid off big. Adelson has a knack for timing. His Venetian concept in Las Vegas was delivered at the right time and place. (High end shopping, 5-stars restaurants, renaissance art works, and gondola rides in a casino? You bet!) Trump and Steve Wynn have copied the Venetian business model in Vegas, New Jersey, and Florida. The feather in Adelson's business cap thus far, has to be scoring prime locations in Hong Kong and Macau. I believe this is one of the reason why LVS came roaring back so quickly. Investors realized that with the Asian properties, LVS is sitting on a potential diamond mine, and priced under 2 bucks, LVS was a stealth bargain.
Despite LVS impressive portfolio of properties and Adelson at the helm, I've always resisted buying LVS until it hit bottom last March. Until March of this year, I've always felt that LVS was overpriced. However, having studied the company and the man who runs the company for 10 years, I realized it was time to buy when the stock started creeping back above $2.50 from a low of $1.38 towards the end of March. I generally don't buy "penny" stocks, had any other man been in charge of the company, there was no way in hell I was going to buy LVS, I don't care what type of assets the company has. Such is the faith that I have in Adelson, the man is a Julius Caesar of the business world. Ferocious and cunning in business battle, his main interest is the company. What other CEO of a public company on this planet can claim to be founder, CEO, and majority shareholder (Adelson controls over 70 percent of the stocks)? Not Buffet or Gates. Not bad for a guy with only a high school education.
It is my belief that 80 percent of hired gun CEO's makes command decisions that's based not necessarily on benefiting the company as a whole, but rather to make themselves look good in the public eye. Such is not the case with CEO Adelson; because his entire fortune is on the line, Adelson makes business decisions that most CEO's in their right minds would never even contemplate doing. His recent restructuring of LVS finances in order to move forward with the development of the Asian properties put the company's operating debt margins right on the edge. He is in fact betting everything upon the success of Macau. For most CEO's, this would be career suicide, especially when the world's economy is in recessed.
It has indeed been a wild ride these last 6 months, a healthy 300 percent return and who knows what's in store for
the next 6 months. LVS isn't really my traditional logical approach to investments based on micro and macroeconomic
conditions, as well as company fundatmentals. Heck! It really isn't an investment at all! For me, LVS is my $300 bet on Sheldon Adelson.
~Huy Nguyen
The uninformed American cynic would have you believe that American Manufacturing is dead; long live the service industry!
Balderdash! While it's true that American automobile manufacturing is bleeding to death via many self-inflicted small caliber gunshot wounds, manufacturing in the aerospace sector remains the best in the world. Notice that I did not type one of the best but rather THE best. So right now you're probably thinking: "...but Boeing is having all sorts of delivery problems with the 787 product line." Yeah, they did. And you know why? The overseas portion of the production process completely fubar, costing millions of dollars in delay penalty. Boeing is sorting this mess out by bringing most of the production back to the US. Ironic isn't it? Despite this mess with the 787, Boeing is still kicking EADS' (Airbus) ass. If you've been brainwashed into believing that Airbus rules the skies, take a look at the numbers for the last 2 years. Oh, by the way, the 40 year old 747 design still dominate its class while the EADS equivalent has failed miserably. Why do customers buy Boeing products? BECAUSE IT MAKES THEM MONEY!!! That's the bottom line. It's not about patriotism nor pride nor European Union of Socialist States.
Still not convince? How about the humble Cessna? Yes the venerable Cessna (I flew one for the first time in 1995, the plane was over 30 years old! Pure magic.). Walk onto any general aviation airport in the UK and continental Europe; all you see are Cessnas and other American made aircrafts owned by wealthy Europeans. In fact, James May, presenter on the world's most watched automobile television show, owns a Cessna 182 and several other American made aerobatic airplanes. This is the same James May who lambaste all things American on a weekly basis. It's not just Europe that Cessna has a dominant market share, it's also South America, Asia, and Australia. Don't believe me? Plan your holiday and go take a look with your own eyes, it could be rather fun if you're the adventurous sort.
As much as I love small Cessnas, helicopters are my favorite aircrafts. I actually flew in the back of a helicopter several years before I got a chance to fly a Cessna. I was 18 years old when I got my first helicopter ride in a Bell 204. The damned thing was much older than any of us on that flight, including the pilots. Although many years have passed since that moment in time, I still remember that morning vividly in my head. Last I heard, that particular ship (yes I refer to helicopters as ships because they float on an ocean of air) got sold to an overseas operator. The bloody thing is probably still flying in some third world country. The successor to the 204 is the Bell 205, also known as the UH-1H in military parlance. The UH-1H is the most widely produced military helicopter airframe of all time, and with modern avionics and turbine engines, are still in service industry wide to this day. Coincidentally, the most widely produced helicopter airframe in history, civil or military, is the Bell 206B Jet Ranger series. In production since the early 1960's, its latest incarnation is still in production today. The airframe still pretty much looks the same throughout its service life: understated elegance. The Jet Ranger is still sold and operated on all continents of the earth.
Bell's sexiest contribution to the rotor-craft world is the AH-1 Cobra. The Cobra is the epitome of the attack helicopter gunship as we know it today, however when it debuted over 40 years ago, the concept was revolutionary. Fast, slim profile, and able to deliver devastating firepower, the Cobra is operated worldwide by both friends and foes. The Cobra's design has been copied by American as well as foreign firms. In fact, the latest and greatest attack helicopter to come out of Europe looks suspiciously like the earlier airframe of the Cobra. Bell will continue to churn many Cobras for decades to come.
Let me go back to Boeing for a minute, when you hear or read the word Boeing you don't immediately think helicopters,
but the fact of the matter is Boeing currently produces two very important ships being used quite extensively in
Afghanistan: The Chinook, a heavy transport and the Apache, a heavy attack helicopter. Both the US and the UK operate
these ships, and I think Spain has some Chinooks there as well. Boeing cannot produce enough Chinooks, they actually
have a pretty dang big back order (sort of like the 787). Chinooks are used for practically everything in Afghanistan,
with maybe the exception of "gun-runs". In my opinion, perhaps the most important mission for the Chinooks in that theater is
medical transport missions (medevacs). Medevacs of both military and civilian patients. Because the Chinook is so bloody
big, it can accommodate several medics, trauma nurses, an emergency medicine physician, along with medical equipments. And
the Chinook is pretty fast for its size too, sometimes it will actually outrun its attack helicopter escorts. As far
as I'm concern, the Chinook is the unsung hero of this war. The big irony is that 10-15 years ago, the Chinook was
considered a has been, old and outdated. Funny how things seems to work out. In the civilian sector, Chinooks are used
in civil engineering projects, construction, firefighting, minimal impact logging, airliners, and even as personal
transport for billionaire playboys.
The Boeing Apache is the more muscular and brainy younger brother to the Bell Cobra. The two biggest operators of the Apache are the US and the UK, along with rest of the free world on a smaller scale. Both the Israelis and the Saudis operate the Apache, however my money is on the Israelis in a helicopter fight. As a matter of consequence, should the Chinese decide to execute a conventional attack against the democratic island nation of Taiwan, Cobras and Apaches are the last line of defense against the Chinese invasion. Cobras and Apaches are literally the tools of freedom for the Taiwanese people. I have a special affinity for Cobra and Apache pilots, unlike their fast flying jet-jock brethren, attack helicopter pilots fly slow and low at great peril to themselves in support of the infantryman. Even with great advances in avionics and aviation ordinances, when the jet-jocks swoop down on the battlefield at 500 knots it could be difficult to determine friends or foes; civilians or military (especially when the other side doesn't wear uniforms nor adhere to the Geneva Conventions), so mistakes and miscalculations do happen. This is where the Cobras and Apaches really shine, they can fly slow and low over the battle-space and deliver pinpoint firepower. Much more accurate than a jet ever could, minimizing unnecessary collateral damage to civilians and more importantly friendly troops. Unfortunately there just aren't enough helicopters nor pilots to go around. The reason for this is for another day.
What I've touched on so far is barely scratching the surface of our manufacturing prowess. Our greatness lies beyond aviation and aerospace. I will respectfully submit to you readers that our capacity to manufacture is only limited by whatever is socially fashionable. Toyotas, Hondas, and Nissans destined for the North American market are built in the United States. I think the Japanese know a thing or two about building cars, don't you? The Japanese trust us enough to build THEIR cars. They could have easily gone to Mexico and save a lot of money. Our industries struggles not because of our engineering but rather because of bad leadership, bad unions, bad politics, and because we are slaves to bad social fashion trends.
~Huy NguyenClick Here For Archived Articles
